Three-Way Title Fight? | F1 2024 Last Triple-Header

(If you prefer, you can watch this video instead: Three-Way Title Fight? | F1 2024 Last Triple Header)

It’s not really a three-way title fight per se.

Scuderia Ferrari is behind McLaren Mercedes by 36 points.

Scuderia Ferrari is ahead of RedBull Racing by 13 points.

The Prancing Horses can come home in any of the top three positions, which is giving the illusion of a three-way title fight.

With three race weekends to go and the top three teams being almost evenly matched, thanks to a delicate balance between car performance and driver skill, the constructor’s standings could go in any direction.

Before the final triple-header of this surprisingly competitive 2024 Formula 1 season begins, let’s look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team to make some predictions and speculations for the top step in the principality.

McLaren Mercedes: Can they hold on to P1

The Woking-based outfit had shown up to the majority of the races in the 2024 season with a better car compared to its competitors. However, despite this massive strength, they still lead the constructor’s standings by a marginal 36 points from the Scuderia.

It may appear that it is a good enough buffer for the final triple-header, but in the past three races, they have conceded a whopping 39 points to the Prancing Horses from Maranello.

1. The worrying form of Norris and Piastri

Lando Norris, the #1 driver of McLaren Mercedes, has achieved pole position eight times. While impressive, he has only been able to convert one of them into victory. Even in that race, which was in Singapore, he almost crashed out twice — once near T14 and once at T10 (after the pitstops).

The most recent abysmal performance by the young Brit was in the Sao Paolo GP, which clearly displayed his incapability of performing under stress and capitalizing on the misfortune of his title rival.

The worst part of all for Lando is the lack of accountability. After the Singapore GP, he said, “I had a couple of little moments in the middle, but it was well controlled, I think, otherwise.”

He adds, “Sometimes it can be that you’re just chilling too much. Maybe it’s a bit of both, I don’t know what it is. But it’s tricky.” [1]

After the Brazil GP (he finished P6 after starting on pole with the fastest car on the grid), he said “Just a bit unlucky today, nothing more.” [2]

Moving on to Piastri, things aren’t that better either. In my opinion, the Australian is a better driver, in terms of skill, although I may be biased because I am a fan. But nevertheless, he has failed to put consistent, clean weekends together.

In Mexico and Brazil, for instance, he messed up the qualifying and spent the race recovering through the field. The difficulty of overtaking in Mexico and the dynamic wet weather conditions in Brazil resulted in P8 on both occasions.

Yes, there have been instances where he performed impeccably well (Baku) but he definitely needs to string things together. Of course, the team orders aren’t quite helping, but recognizing the lack of talent in his teammate, Piastri must get himself straightened out.

2. Reactive approach to pitstop strategies

It is a mixture of internal team dynamics where the folks in the garage aren’t sure of which driver they want to prioritize and the practice of waiting until others have made their move.

The British Grand Prix, Hungarian Grand Prix, and the Italian Grand Prix were a few incidents where the team made clear mistakes. Various analysts and pundits are charting it as “not being used to run at the front” but excuses don’t win championships. 

Furthermore, it also appears that the Woking-based outfit is not aiming to maximize the potential of the race but rather achieve the bare minimum. After the disastrous performance by both McLaren drivers in Brazil, especially Norris, Andrea Stella stated “...for Lando there was never any particular pressure. To be honest, we were enjoying this quest.” [3]

Unbelievable.

When you aren’t taking your mistakes seriously and not pushing yourself for both championships while chalking up terrible decisions to luck, it can be difficult to win anything in a sport as brutal as Formula 1. 

There were plenty of opportunities throughout this amazing 2024 season where McLaren could have pulled miles ahead of their competitors in both drivers’ and constructors’ standings. To make matters worse, it doesn’t seem that they are learning from their mistakes.

All things considered, the final triple-header can prove quite tricky for the Papaya team. 

Moreover, the streets of Las Vegas, the dust of Qatar, and the pressure of the season finale in Abu Dhabi can contribute to their demise. The fragile consistency of the drivers and incapability of making your own decisions could make it easy for the Prancing Horses to close the 36-point gap in no time.

Scuderia Ferrari: Need to stop self-sabotaging

The strengths of the Maranello outfit are that their car doesn’t suck at most tracks, even if it isn’t the best in terms of race pace, and their drivers are fairly consistent. 

Of course, the weakness is obvious to anyone who has been watching Formula 1 for a few seasons — their strategy. It has become comically painful to watch the Prancing Horses ruin their races by pulling dumb strategies. 

The problem, in fact, is so acute that I am struggling to mention one example that stands out.

The most recent one was in Brazil, which was the most recent race weekend. The pit crew fitted a used set of inters on car #55 and refused to even acknowledge that when Sainz frantically inquired about that on the radio.

A few moments after the deafening radio silence, he crashed out.

Sad if you are a Tifosi. Funny if you are anything else.

Another interesting fact about the whole Sao Paolo race weekend was the fact that they were outscored by Max Verstappen alone. The Dutch driver scored 31 points, compared to 20 by the Monagasque and the Spaniard combined.

This was quite unfortunate because they started the Americas triple-header with two back-to-back victories. Leclerc won in Austin with Sainz in second and Carlos took the chequered flag in Mexico with Charles finishing P3.

At this level of professional complacency, forget the 36-point gap to McLaren, they will struggle to finish second considering Red Bull Racing is just 13 points away in P3.

Furthermore, the two Ferrari victories in Austin and Mexico can be partly credited to the current championship leader, Max Verstappen, who did his best to ruin his title rival’s chances at securing a win.

I don’t think the drivers in red can count on that in the final triple-header because Max now has a 62-point lead over Norris following a phenomenal performance in Brazil. Right after the race weekend, Verstappen admitted that he just needs clean race weekends rather than focusing on Lando, thanks to the healthy buffer. [4]

Red Bull Racing: The underdogs with nothing to lose

Unless Max Verstappen ends up in the barriers or finishes outside the points in two out of the three races, it is inevitable that he will clinch his fourth world title to join the ranks of Prost and Vettel and cement himself as one of the GOATs of the sport.

Unfortunately, the Dutch driver’s championship-level performance is the only thing the Milton Keynes outfit has going for them. 

They have the slowest car among the top three teams which doesn’t show because their #1 driver continues to outdrive that car in every race weekend. The second problem these folks have is Sergio ‘Checo’ Perez, who seems to have forgotten how to drive an F1 car.

Due to the Mexican driver’s vile performance throughout this season, they have dropped from leading the constructor’s standings to third. On top of that, the financial damage incurred by the team due to multiple crashes has affected the available budget for car development.

Interestingly, Red Bull Racing would finish P3 in the WCC with or without Checo!

When you take it all into consideration, the only hope the Horner-led team has (to be the runners-up in the constructors’) is if McLaren and Ferrari tangle among each other, with the Scuderia getting the worse of it, and Max capitalizing on those moments.

Even though I and other F1 fans dislike it, Checo is their best option because Red Bull has screwed up their own driver’s lineup. This is inevitable when the #1 driver is Max Verstappen and the #2 driver’s official objective is to bring the car home and help the Dutch driver win more championships.

Eventually, the secondary pilot will put themself under too much pressure, and going against such a ruthless champion and the team favorite rarely works out. Just look at Valterri!

Personally, with so little to lose, I think it would be a great idea to play musical chair with the #2 seat. With three race weekends left, the team can give the RB20 to Ricciardo, Lawson, and Tsunoda. It will be a great way to see who can handle the pressure and make the most of that opportunity.

Looking forward: Everything to play for

Formula 1 is an amazing sport and one of the reasons for it is the unpredictibility.

We can analyze all we want, but with so many variables and the teams closely matched, thanks to the fine balance between the car’s performance and the driver’s skills, anything can happen.

I will love it if Ferrari wins the WCC. It can be funny if McLaren comes P2 in both the standings.

Red Bull Racing is basically the Verstappen F1 team anyway. The sole objective of that team, since 2020, is to help Max win. I doubt they will give a damn if they come to P3. On the bright side, it means more wind tunnel time for the next season.

Thanks for reading.

Until next time,

Tara

References

1. Lando after Singapore 2024

2. Lando after Brazil 2024

3. Andrea Stella after Brazil

4. Max wants clean races