Why Red Bull Chose Liam Lawson Over Yuki Tsunoda (Science-Based)
- Tarasekhar Padhy
- Dec 28, 2024
- 7 min read
Updated: Dec 29, 2024
As you all know Liam Lawson got the nod for the second seat in the Red Bull for the 2025 Formula 1 season. Many fans around the world are suggesting that Japanese driver Yuki Tsunoda deserved it more.
I don’t think that is the case.
Liam Lawson deserved it more.
Yuki Tsunoda is not that good. He is decent, but definitely not Red Bull material.
And I can prove it with statistics.
Let’s go through each of the seasons Yuki competed in F1 and evaluate his performance against his teammates, especially Liam Lawson.
2021: Lackluster Debut
Tsunoda began his career in the pinnacle of motorsport in the legendary 2021 F1 season with AlphaTauri, partnering with Pierre Gasly — a Red Bull veteran.
Pierre ended the season with 110 points on board, ranking 9th overall, while the Japanese rookie wrapped up the year with 32 points at P14.
Notice that Gasly has finished ahead of both Alpines and Aston Martins, which were slower cars that year. Tsunoda couldn’t even beat Lance Stroll!
Moreover, Pierre is only five points adrift from McLaren’s Daniel Ricciardo while Tsunoda scored 2x of what George Russell managed to in a Williams. To put it into perspective, take a look at the constructor’s standings:
AlphaTauri finished 65 points ahead of Aston Martin and only 13 behind Alpine. Furthermore, McLaren Mercedes finished a whopping 133 points ahead of the Red Bull sister team. Keep in mind that Daniel barely inched out Gasly in the overall season.
Interestingly, Pierre and Yuki scored 6x more than the Williams. This implies that Tsunoda scoring 2x the points as Russell isn’t that impressive.
Now, let’s compare the race-by-race performance of the teammates:
The points difference between the Japanese and the French in each third of the 2021 F1 season are 29, 19, and 30. This signifies that the rate of improvement of Tsunoda in the course of the season is almost non-existent.
Another fun way to compare both of their performances is by looking at the average points scored and finishing position in each third:
You can say that it was Yuki’s debut season but remember that we are evaluating him for the second Red Bull seat, not a midfield team. The driver in that seat should be able to compete with the likes of Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, and Carlos Sainz, at least.
If your rate of improvement through the season is non-existent, and you are outperformed by drivers with shittier cars which includes Lance Stroll, you ain’t that guy.
2022: Bad Car, Stale Performance
In the 2022 F1 season, AlphaTauri had a shitter car.
Pierre Gasly outperformed that machine while Yuki Tsunoda still finished behind Lance Stroll.
It appears that the Red Bull sister teams were as fast as the Haas, based on the constructor’s standings:
Perhaps Tsunoda could have scored a few more points to beat Haas in the constructors’ and finish ahead of Mick Schumacher at least.
Comparing both drivers’ performances, Yuki, to his credit, started his 2022 campaign strong, outscoring his teammate by five points in the first third of the season. This was good considering how much of a shitbox that Vcarb or AlphaTauri was that year.
However, as the season progressed, the Frenchman pulled the gap, especially with a great performance at Azerbaijan. The Jap kid never really caught up. It’s shocking to note that he scored only one point between Monaco and Abu Dhabi.
When you put the average points scored and position finished in each third of the season, there isn’t much. Yuki had the edge in the first third but Pierre picked it up for the remainder of the season. Honestly, this data doesn’t paint a real picture of Tsunoda’s performance considering they struggled the majority of the year.
2023: Three’s a Company
The 2023 F1 season was fun for the AlphaTauri team because Yuki had three teammates. Nyck, Daniel, and Liam. Gives us a lot of data to realize how terrible and overrated Yuki Tsunoda actually is.
I’ve compared Nyck and Yuki’s race positions for the first ten races of the season. This is because Nyck scored zero points and Yuki scored only two.
Note that the performance of both drivers is almost identical from Monaco to Great Britain. This is concerning considering it was Tsunoda’s third season in F1 while de Vries was just starting out and was under a lot of pressure.
Then came Ricciardo, who shared nine Grand Prix weekends with the Japanese driver. The relative performance is a bit inconclusive as Daniel took a break right after the first couple of races due to a broken wrist at the Dutch Grand Prix.
Fortunately, Yuki beat the Austrailian decisively. It would have been embarrassing if Tsunoda got beaten by a guy who was fired from McLaren for being too shit, paid to sit out, and had an erratic season.
Now, let’s compare it with Liam Lawson. The most interesting stuff. Just be aware that it was Lawson’s debut and Tsunoda’s third season.
This makes me sad because he had that engine failure in Italy and that Perez collision in Singapore. And he had a good pace in Singapore. It was evident from Lawson’s first points finish in F1.
The worst of it all was finishing behind Liam in the Netherlands and Japan. Qatar was kind of a shitshow considering the horrendous weather. The Dutch GP was a weekend to forget for Tsunoda and in Japan, he was pipped by his less experienced teammate early in the race.
To put it concisely, 2023 was mathematically better than the past two seasons. At the same time, it is inconclusive because the car was mostly trash, de Vries was trash, and Daniel Ricciardo broke his wrist. What we did know was Liam Lawson is a super sub.
The Kiwi not only outperformed his more experienced teammate in his first race and in Japan but also scored points in Singapore with a great drive.
2024: Two Mates
After showing little-to-no improvement in his racecraft and consistency after three full seasons in F1, Yuki had to prove it all in the 2024, and the most recent, season. The objective here is simple: beat all your teammates decisively throughout the season.
He smoked Daniel Ricciardo to the point that the Australian could see the writing on the wall. This is the Yuki we wanted to see all along. When you compare race finishes the Jap kid was bringing the car home ahead of his more experienced and better-rated teammate.
However, just like 2022, this performance is only for the first seven or so races. After that, Ricciardo became competitive and was finishing ahead of Tsunoda in multiple races. Nevertheless, Daniel was let go because he lagged way behind points. Yuki scored 22 while Daniel was at ten.
After the much-awaited dismissal of the Australian from the sport, Yuki Tsunoda was paired with Liam Lawson. People say that Yuki out-qualified Liam on all six occasions and scored more points, hence he deserves the second Red Bull seat.
Yes, it is a good point. But before we make that decision, we need to remember that this was Liam Lawson’s 2nd mid-season debut. He also had a lot of pressure to deal with because of the tight battle for P6 in the constructors against Haas and, after Brazil, Alpine.
Out of those six races, he finished ahead of Yuki in true. That’s (kind of) impressive.
In summary, Yuki started his 2024 campaign strong, so much so that it became his best season in Formula 1 so far. Even though Daniel finished ahead of Tsunoda in certain races, the Japanese driver was comfortably ahead.
Liam Lawson’s 2nd mid-season entry into F1 was impressive as well. He finished ahead of Yuki on four occasions and scored only two points than him in the same period. Additionally, it appears that he handled the pressure from the team, amid a tight battle for P6 in the constructor’s, well.
His battle against Alonso, Perez, and Colapinto showed potential and hunger that, let’s be honest, Yuki lacks.
Conclusion: All Eyes on Tsunoda For 2025
In the past four years of Yuki driving, there was never a time when we were all like ‘damn, that kid’s fast.’
Fans and analysts recommended Tsunoda because Perez was shit.
Yes, the Japanese driver had great performances, especially in qualifying.
Yes, he is reliable enough to bring the car home, most of the time.
However, he never performed at an eye-catching level.
He quite often gets into crashes during qualifying sessions and races. I know that not all of it is his fault, but over the course of a year, it looks like a scrappy season.
Moreover, you can’t chalk things to luck too much in F1, especially if you are gunning for that second Red Bull seat. The driver in that seat must make their own luck as you are expected to compete for wins and championships not decent finishes.
For the upcoming 2025 season, Tsunoda must level up. He has to do a complete Rosberg and beat Issack Hadjar the way he was beaten by Pierre Gasly in his debut.
Maybe he can still save his F1 career and keep his championship-winning hopes alive.
