Is Kimi Antonelli the luckiest maiden F1 title contender

Currently, Andrea Kimi Antonelli is leading the 2026 F1 drivers’ standings by a whopping 84 points. Right now, there are seven races to go. 

His closest “rival,” George Russell, his own teammate, is set to get a grid penalty for the 2026 Singapore Grand Prix, a track where it is tricky to overtake, due to an unscheduled engine change following a power unit failure in Sepang.

Kimi’s second-closest “rival,” Lewis Hamilton, is now 106 points behind, and it is very likely that he won’t be a threat to the Italian’s F1 aspirations.

All in all, it is almost certain that the 20-year-old driver from Bologna will clinch his maiden F1 world championship soon.

After closely analyzing the 2026 F1 season so far, I just couldn’t help but notice that while he has been as flawless as he can be, considering this is his second season in the sport, Lady Luck has always been on his side.

In this article, let’s look at those key fateful moments that gradually added certainty to Kimi’s title campaign.

Lewis Hamilton’s chances were ruined by Ferrari and himself

The 7x F1 world champion was touted as a potential title contender after the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix. He won the race by nearly 20 seconds by making a three-stop strategy work and capitalizing on a late virtual safety car.

Interestingly, Antonelli, who was leading the championship and was set to finish the race in P2, suffered an electrical and power unit malfunction that forced him to retire. Now, Lewis was second in the drivers’ standings.

Toto Wolff himself expressed concern that once the “Hamilton train” gets going, it’s hard to stop it, and all of us, especially me, being a Lewis fan, slept well that night.

However, things started going downhill for the Ferrari driver pretty soon.

The reality check in Red Bull Ring

The very next race in Spielberg wasn’t particularly good for Hamilton. After qualifying third and demonstrating promising pace early on, he struggled to keep the tires alive and maintain his overall pace.

He crossed the chequered flag fifth while Antonelli stood on the final step on the podium.

The beginning of consistent penalties

At Silverstone, Lewis outscored Antonelli by 18 points, which sounds impressive, because it is.

However, Hamilton picked up a 5-second time penalty and pitted under a safety car, which cost him a potential win or at least a P2. 

While from a broader championship perspective it looked dandy, it was the start of a domino effect that continued for the next few races.

Issues from Spa to Madring

Let’s quickly speed run through the next races to quickly understand where things went wrong:

• Belgium: 5-second penalty for a racing incident with George Russell, miscommunication with the pit crew about front wing adjustment, botched pit stop, and a damaged car due to the earlier incident. Finished P5. Kimi won.

• Hungary: 3-place grid penalty for impeding during qualifying to start P5, a poorly planned pit stop under the VSC to lose track position, and a 5-second time penalty for speeding in the pit lane. Finished P5. Kimi was 3rd.

• Netherlands: Ferrari took too long to swap positions with Leclerc, who was on slower tires at the moment, costing him race time, and of course, a terribly planned pit stop during a VSC. Finished P4. Kimi P2.

• Italy: A tangle with an overly aggressive Charles Leclerc dropped him down to P8, and he spent the rest of the race recovering back to P6. Kimi won after starting from 19th on the grid. After this race, Lewis stated that it’s “too late” for his 2026 title hopes.

• Spain: The bad luck continued in Spain’s new Madring circuit after a brake failure led to Hamilton’s DNF from a potential podium position. Antonelli won the race.

Bad tire choice in the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia

The race in Sepang was delayed due to heavy rain. After things got sorted, Ferrari literally put dry tires on Lewis’ Ferrari while the track was still noticeably wet.

Consequently, he dropped back to P18 and was nearly a minute behind the race leader. 

Thanks to his world-class driving abilities, he recovered to P3. Kimi finished P2. The final result makes me wonder, “What if Ferrari’s strategists didn’t have room-temperature IQ?”

George Russell’s engine gremlins and DNFs

Considering Lewis’s biggest opponent is his own team, it was evident that the only title fight in 2026 will be between the Mercedes drivers. After all, George Russell was as consistent as they come and had the same machinery as Kimi Antonelli. Not to mention, the Mercedes pit wall is some of the smartest and most agile people in the world.

Engine settings in China

During the qualifying session, Russell’s car abruptly stopped in the middle of a warm-up lap, breaking the flow of operations. Fortunately, he got going and qualified second, but this was enough for him to lose pole position to his teammate, who converted it into a win.

Safety car and battery issues in Japan

A few last-minute adjustments to his car before the final qualifying run screwed up the balance, and Russell could only manage a P2 for the Grand Prix. Then, after a poor start, he actually recovered to P2, putting the pressure on Oscar Piastri for the race win.

Unfortunately, Lady Luck was on Kimi’s side.

Just one lap after George pitted under green-flag conditions, Bearman crashed, triggering a full safety car, giving Antonelli a cheap pit stop and the lead of the race.

To make matters worse, battery issues led to more lost positions as the race developed, and he finally finished P4.

Three no-mistake DNFs

The British driver’s sublime performance in Canada and Sepang ended in misery as his power unit gave up, forcing him to retire.

What made it worse is that he was leading the race in Canada and definitely was in contention for the win, or at least a podium, in Malaysia.

The third DNF happened in Belgium when Lewis collided with him following a battery deployment error on Russell’s Mercedes.

Anti-stall in Budapest

The Hungaroring is known as “Monaco without walls” due to its narrow width and absence of effective overtaking zones. This is one of those circuits where qualifying and race starts are absolutely critical.

George Russell’s Mercedes went into anti-stall at the race start, dropping him to 21st position from P6. He did well to recover to P7, but with Kimi on the podium, he fell further in the championship standings.

Kimi is flawless, though

While it was important to acknowledge the bad luck, mistakes, and reliability woes of Kimi’s nearest maiden F1 title campaign’s rivals, it’s even more important to recognize the Italian’s performance.

Stringing together eight F1 victories, one of which was a Grand Slam in Monaco, is definitely impressive. Additionally, Antonelli’s ability to avoid pointless risks in a race and to drive within himself by blocking out the external noise spells out championship material.

Yes, Russell had issues, and Lewis has Ferrari, but Kimi still performed weekend after weekend.

Even in Baku, where he had a crash during the qualifying session, he recovered to P5 from P16 by minimizing risk. And in the race after that? He was right back at the front fighting for the win.

Eyes on Marina Bay

The next race is in Singapore, a street circuit where qualifying performance is critical. Considering the fact that Russell will be taking a grid penalty, it is almost certain that Antonelli is bound to beat his teammate.

That leaves only six races where George can potentially outscore his young Italian colleague.

As an F1 fan, my focus is not on the F1 drivers’ title anymore. It is on the battle for P3 because Lewis, Charles, Lando, and Max are within 26 points of each other, with the 7x WDC holder holding his ground at the moment with 214 points.